Everton vs Fulham: Opposition Analysis | Are the Cottagers Our Bogey Team?

Everton ended an unwelcome ten-month spell without an away win last weekend in registering a comfortable victory over newly-promoted Ipswich Town. Coincidentally, the Blues last took all three points on enemy turf against another newcomer to the Premier League, in Sean Dyche’s old side, Burnley — then helmed by Vincent Kompany.

The Toffees are currently enjoying a run of four league games without defeat, which has steadied the ship after a poor start to the campaign. They’ll be hoping to continue this in the afternoon’s late kickoff, when they welcome Fulham to Goodison Park.

Form

Former Everton boss Marco Silva guided the Cottagers to a 13th-placed finish last term — a slight dip on tenth in the previous season. There was some mitigation to this, as the club had undergone a summer of turbulence, losing star striker Aleksandar Mitrovic and at one stage, even Silva himself appeared to be heading for the exit.

Last summer was much more stable, and Fulham backed their man in the market, to the tune of a net €22.8m. They embarked on some churn in the squad, with regulars such as Willian, Tim Ream, Tosin Adarabioyo and Bobby De Cordova-Reid all departing on free transfers, but significant funds arriving, with defensive midfielder João Palhinha eventually completing his move to Bayern Munich (€51.0m) and €21.8m being recouped from Birmingham City for young striker Jay Stansfield.

The West Londoners signed six new players, but Silva has been careful not to disrupt the established team too much and has integrated them slowly. Only attacking midfielder Emile Smith-Rowe (Arsenal, €31.8m) and Crystal Palace central defender Joachim Andersen (€29.5m) have yet forced their way into the starting lineup, with midfielder Sander Berge (€23.6, from Burnley) and Arsenal’s Reiss Nelson (loan) so far contributing mainly from the substitute’s bench.

Fulham commenced the new campaign by losing late on against Manchester United, but rebounded with victory over Leicester City, only to be held next time out by another promoted side, in Ipswich. They were the better team against West Ham United, but failed to secure the victory. Two good wins followed — at Craven Cottage over Newcastle United, and then on the road at Nottingham Forest. They arrive at Goodison off two defeats, firstly in a 3-2 thriller against Manchester City, at the Etihad Stadium and then last weekend, when they succumbed to Aston Villa, having seen Andersen sent off just after the hour mark.

They occupy tenth spot in the table entering the weekend’s fixtures, three points ahead of Everton.

Style of Play

Silva is committed to his system of play and has stuck again with the 4-2-3-1 formation which he favoured last term, though he did use the similar 4-3-3 against the Tractor Boys and switched to a 5-4-1 at City a few weeks ago. It’s to be expected that he’ll set up in his preferred formation this evening, however.

His approach hasn’t changed too much since his days in Liverpool, which is to prioritize offensive play and a build-up based on short passing. He learned some harsh lessons during those dark days at Everton however, and his Fulham side are not so easy to play against as the Blues were back then.

They are in the middle of the division as regards share of possession (49.3%) and pass completion (84.5%). Only 9.9% of their passes go long, Fulham are a quite cross-heavy side though, attempting 22 per match, which ranks third in the league. The Cottagers favour a balanced attack, whereas Everton are heavily skewed to the right side. They generate 14.4 shots per 90 minutes, although their xG (Expected Goals) metric of 12.6 exceeds the number they’ve actually scored (eleven). All of their goals have been from open play, with the exception of one penalty.

Defensively, today’s visitors have been reasonably solid, only permitting an average of 13.4 efforts on their net per 90, which ranks ninth in the division. They’ve conceded eleven times, from an xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) of 9.8, so they are underperforming the numbers slightly both in attack and defence. A vulnerability which will surely be tested today is against set-pieces, with four of the goals they’ve shipped coming from dead-ball situations.

Photo by Stephanie Meek – CameraSport via Getty Images

Player Assessment

Bernd Leno is an experienced goalkeeper, has proven to be a shrewd signing and is one of a number of former Arsenal players brought to the club. He is not on great form currently however, having been beaten eleven times from a PSxG (Post-Shot Expected Goals) of 8.6, which is quite an under-performance. Over the past year, his shot-stopping falls in the bottom 18th-percentile amongst players operating in the major European leagues.

Raul Jimenez is undergoing a late-career resurgence. The 33-year-old bagged a brace against Luton Town, to sign off last season, and has scored four already this term. At his best, several years ago, he was a complete striker, one combining a physical presence, intelligent movement, clinical finishing and decent pace and he’s back at that level currently.

Another ex-Wolves man playing well is Adama Traore. The powerful and rapid right winger is attempting 5.8 dribbles, with a 52.5% success rate and is carrying the ball into the opposition area 2.17 times per 90.

Providing creativity for the visitors will be ex-Blue Alex Iwobi and one-time United fringe player Andreas Pereira. The former is generating a team-high 4.00 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) per 90 from open play, whereas the latter leads the squad with an SCA of 6.05, with more than half that total coming from set-piece plays.

Solution

The loss of Andersen to suspension, following the Dane receiving a straight red card at the Etihad, will hurt the visitors today. He’s the Londoners’ most dominant aerial defender and would likely have matched up well with Everton’s target man striker, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, in addition to stiffening up the side when defending corners and free kicks, which has been a vulnerability all season.

Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images

It’s a no-brainer for the hosts to target this weakness, particularly in Andersen’s absence. To do this, the Blues will need to get bodies much higher up the pitch than was the case against Newcastle, in their last home match, when they registered no corners at all. I’d expect Everton to want to get bodies into the Fulham box during regular play also, to offer targets for crossing opportunities.

As for the home side’s likely starting eleven, Dyche will want to maintain continuity where possible and I’d assume the only changes to be at centre half, with Jarrad Branthwaite in for Michael Keane — possibly along with right back. Ashley Young has performed well in recent outings, at both full back berths, but with Seamus Coleman and Nathan Patterson both available, it’s up in the air who the manager will prefer. Saying that, I can’t see the Scot being selected over either veteran.

Fulham are a very decent Premier League outfit and one which has beaten Everton each time at Goodison since Silva’s arrival. Dyche has failed to get any wins over the Londoners since being installed on Merseyside, will want to put that bleak run to an end and to continue to build up some momentum heading towards what figures to be a demanding December. The tools are in place for the Blues to certainly avoid defeat, but they really should be aiming higher at home against this level of opposition.

Prediction: Everton 1-1 Fulham

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