Coming off a great Game 2 win over the Dodgers, the Mets are set for three NLCS games against the Dodgers at Citi Field starting tomorrow night. Having split the first two games of the series on the road, as they did in the NLDS, the team has the opportunity to capitalize on home field advantage. And there are a couple of lineup tweaks worth considering as they head into Game 3.
Let’s be clear: The Mets wouldn’t be here without Francisco Alvarez and Jose Iglesias. The former wasn’t quite as great with the bat in his sophomore season as we had all hoped, but he finished the regular season with a 102 wRC+, 11 home runs, and the trust of the Mets’ pitching staff. His stint on the injured list early in the season coincided with the team’s worst run of play, and his return from the IL provided a clear and obvious boost.
Iglesias is, of course, the heart and soul of the team, as his Candelita song “OMG” has become the team’s celebration song and a big part of its identity. And he put together his best single season at the plate on top of that, finishing the regular season with a 137 wRC+. He’s been essential to this team making the playoffs in the first place.
Right now, though, both players are ice cold. The playoffs are by definition a small sample size, but in 33 plate appearances, Alvarez is hitting .156/.182/.156 with a -3 wRC+. Still without an extra-base hit, he drew his first walk of the postseason in Game 2 on a pitch clock violation by one of the Dodgers’ relievers. He’s come up in lots of situations with runners on base, too, but has driven in just one run. And he’s accumulated -40.0% WPA thus far in the playoffs.
Iglesias has been better than that, and his hustle infield single in Game 1 against the Brewers drove in the tying run and played a huge part in the five-run inning that saw the Mets pull ahead of Milwaukee for good in that game. And he had a two-hit game with a pair of runs batted in when the Mets beat the Phillies in Game 3 of the NLDS. Overall, though, he’s hitting .222/.263/.222 with a 43 wRC+. Like Alvarez, he doesn’t have an extra-base hit yet and has struggled to get on base.
The Mets might want to give both players a game off and get a look at what Jeff McNeil is able to provide at the plate while giving Luis Torrens his first appearance of the playoffs. In the case McNeil, a strong game could result in a shift of priorities for the starting second baseman the rest of the way. And with Torrens, trying to get a one-off game with some production from their catcher is probably worthwhile.
McNeil presents some risk, as he’s returning from a wrist injury, which is typically a tough thing for hitters to make full recoveries from. But in the second half of the regular season, he was fantastic, hitting .289/.376/.547 with a 156 wRC+. The Dodgers are starting right-handed pitcher Walker Buehler in Game 3, to boot, and while he’s been bad against everyone this year, he’s particularly struggled against left-handed hitters. Opposing lefties hit .296/.362/.528 against Buehler this year, and McNeil has been significantly better against right-handed pitchers both this year and over the course of his entire major league career.
As for the risk with Torrens, well, it’s mostly that he hasn’t played in a game since the Mets’ second game of their doubleheader in Atlanta on September 30. A great pickup for the team during the 2024 season, Torrens hit .229/.292/.373 with a 90 wRC+, providing very good results while serving as Alvarez’s backup. And putting too much stock in ERA splits by catcher is generally a foolish thing to do, but for what it’s worth, Mets Game 3 starter Luis Severino had a 3.22 ERA in the 44.2 innings that he worked with Torrens this year. With Alvarez, he had a 4.23 ERA in 89.1 innings.
If the Mets choose to start one or both of these players in Game 3, there will surely be plenty of opportunities for anyone taken out of the starting lineup to get back in it—as soon as the following day for Game 4. But a minor shakeup at the bottom of the order seems like a good idea, and having Iglesias on the bench would give the Mets two late-inning defensive upgrades in the infield—Iglesias and Luisangel Acuña—should they find themselves with a slim lead late in Game 3 tomorrow night.
