Electoral College Ratings
NBC News’ Decision Desk characterizes the competitiveness of many of the races to be held in November. Several factors are considered in determining the ratings, including historical electoral results, election polling, analysis of voter registration data and early voting (when applicable), political advertising data, as well as qualitative assessments of the specific candidates.
Battleground states
Arizona
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Republican Party | 2% |
| 1996 | Democratic Party | 2.2% |
| 2000 | Republican Party | 6.3% |
| 2004 | Republican Party | 10.5% |
| 2008 | Republican Party | 8.5% |
| 2012 | Republican Party | 9.1% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 3.5% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 0.3% |
| Biden won by 0.3 pts in 2020 |
Why it’s important
Donald Trump won Arizona in 2016 by nearly 4 percentage points, but lost the state to Joe Biden in 2020 by less than half a percentage point. Polls this year have found Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a statistical tie.
Georgia
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Democratic Party | 0.6% |
| 1996 | Republican Party | 1.2% |
| 2000 | Republican Party | 11.7% |
| 2004 | Republican Party | 16.6% |
| 2008 | Republican Party | 5.2% |
| 2012 | Republican Party | 7.8% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 5.1% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 0.2% |
| Biden won by 0.2 pts in 2020 |
Why it’s important
Donald Trump won Georgia in 2016 by about 5 percentage points, but lost there to Joe Biden in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes. The race this year is a toss-up, with Trump and Harris locked in a statistical tie in polls.
Michigan
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Democratic Party | 7.4% |
| 1996 | Democratic Party | 13.2% |
| 2000 | Democratic Party | 5.1% |
| 2004 | Democratic Party | 3.4% |
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 16.5% |
| 2012 | Democratic Party | 9.5% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 0.2% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 2.8% |
| Biden won by 2.8 pts in 2020 |
Why it’s important
Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016, surprising Democrats in a state Republicans hadn’t won since 1988. Joe Biden won there in 2020 – besting Trump by 3 percentage points. With Kamala Harris and Trump in a statistical tie, it is a “toss-up” headed into Election Day.
Nebraska District 2
Presidential results, 2008-2020
Percentage point margin
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 1.3% |
| 2012 | Republican Party | 7.2% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 2.3% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 6.6% |
| Biden won by 6.6 pts in 2020 |
Why it’s important
Nebraska awards one Electoral College vote each to its two congressional districts, and the 2nd District has split from the rest of the reliably conservative state. Donald Trump won the district in 2016, but lost it to Joe Biden in 2020. The district is leaning in polls toward the Democrat Kamala Harris this year.
Nevada
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Democratic Party | 2.6% |
| 1996 | Democratic Party | 1% |
| 2000 | Republican Party | 3.5% |
| 2004 | Republican Party | 2.6% |
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 12.5% |
| 2012 | Democratic Party | 6.7% |
| 2016 | Democratic Party | 2.4% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 2.4% |
| Biden won by 2.4 pts in 2020 |
Why it’s important
Democrats won Nevada in the past two presidential elections — but polling and voting trends in the state have made it an appealing target for Donald Trump in a bid to flip states in his direction. Kamala Harris and Trump are locked in a tie and the state is considered a “toss-up.”
North Carolina
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Republican Party | 0.8% |
| 1996 | Republican Party | 4.7% |
| 2000 | Republican Party | 12.8% |
| 2004 | Republican Party | 12.4% |
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 0.3% |
| 2012 | Republican Party | 2% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 3.7% |
| 2020 | Republican Party | 1.3% |
| Trump won by 1.3 pts in 2020 |
Why it’s important
North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 2008, but Kamala Harris’ campaign has targeted it as a state she can win, buoyed by its large Black population. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by 3 percentage points and in 2020 by 1 percentage point.
Pennsylvania
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Democratic Party | 9% |
| 1996 | Democratic Party | 9.2% |
| 2000 | Democratic Party | 4.2% |
| 2004 | Democratic Party | 2.5% |
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 10.3% |
| 2012 | Democratic Party | 5.4% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 0.7% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 1.2% |
| Biden won by 1.2 pts in 2020 |
Why it’s important
Pennsylvania is emerging as the most critical battleground state in the 2024 election. Donald Trump won the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2016 and lost it by about 1 percentage point in 2020. Kamala Harris has remained competitive there, and the state is classified as a “toss-up.”
Wisconsin
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Democratic Party | 4.4% |
| 1996 | Democratic Party | 10.3% |
| 2000 | Democratic Party | 0.2% |
| 2004 | Democratic Party | 0.4% |
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 13.9% |
| 2012 | Democratic Party | 6.8% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 0.8% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 0.6% |
| Biden won by 0.6 pts in 2020 |
Why it’s important
Wisconsin is a “toss-up” battleground state that has swung between Democrats and Republicans. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by less than 1 percentage point. Joe Biden won there in 2020, also by less than 1 percentage point.
Past Presidential Election Results
Vote Margin by State in the 2020 Presidential Election
Circle size represents the number electoral votes in that state.
The expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information on the number of votes cast early as well as information provided to our vote reporters on Election Day from county election officials. The figure can change as NBC News gathers new information.
Source: National Election Pool (NEP)
