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It’s going to take a lot of zeroes to convince Juan Soto to sign on the dotted line this winter.
“The industry agrees the floor for his contract will be $500 million,” wrote Jeff Passan of ESPN while citing his age as much as his skill for the logic behind that figure.
While most players reach free agency sometime around their age-29 or age-30 seasons, Soto just turned 26 years old this past Friday, celebrating his birthday by taking the field for Game 1 of the World Series.
That means the team that signs Soto will be paying for at least three additional prime seasons relative to the average free agent, and that is a result of Soto debuting when he was still just 19 years old and setting his arbitration clock in motion far sooner than most.
So what does all of that mean for his asking price?
It’s likely going to be a deal of at least 10 years and could push closer to 15 years if that level of security is what Soto is looking for this winter.
He reportedly declined a 15-year, $440 million extension offer from the Washington Nationals back in 2022, and he has done nothing to warrant his salary expectations dropping in the years since, so he will be aiming higher than that figure.
The 10-year, $700 million contract that Shohei Ohtani signed last offseason actually carries a present-day value of around $460 million when all of the deferred money is taken into account, and that could also be a number Soto aims to exceed.
A few weeks ago, I predicted a 15-year, $600 million deal in an article identifying the leading candidates to join baseball’s $100 million club this offseason, and that could be the ceiling for his earning power.
That is the type of figure that is going to be thrown around this winter for a player who hit .288/.419/.569 for a 178 OPS+ with 31 doubles, 41 home runs, 109 RBI and 7.9 WAR in 157 games in his first season in Yankee pinstripes.
Who might be willing to meet that lofty asking price…
